View topic - Either way, The Bushies Win

BK,

I've been reading the post for days, and it's pretty obvious by all the posts that the price of oil has alot to do with how we all live our lives. Sadly that's an indication of how we as consumers have allowed one single item to become the entire basis for much of our lifestyle. This is much akin to businesses that have a single lucrative contract vs. others that are built on a broader base of multiple clients.

Anyways, I was growing weary of the "Wo are we North Americans with our gas dependency" posts. It's going to hurt us all differently. It will effoct those that are more dependent more, and it will effect those who are less dependent less. We have all made choices that dictate our oil dependency. We all knew this would be coming eventually. It's not like we haven't had oil shortages in the past. These changes will help some people, and it will hurt others. It's no different than a rise in any other base material. People didn't complain when their house value was growing in the real estate boom, people didn't complain when tech stocks were doubling, and increasing their portfolio.

If people don't like the price of gas... don't buy it. If you feel like you can't get along without it... take your destiny in your own hands... and make the changes in your life. But don't blame others for decisions.

PK

I made a choice 5 years ago to move to the burbs from the country, and my predictions of increased fuel cost were a major factor in that decision (both gasoline and the LP we had to buy). I also made a choice not to buy a pretty big boat and dock it in Ludington (pk, I assume you know where that is ) because I couldn't swallow getting 1-2 mpg, not because of cost, but because it just didn't seem like the gas consumption:enjoyment ratio could be justified.

The sad part is, most of our fellow North Americans didn't have a clue this was coming, but they could sure tell you about American Idol......part of me wants to cry for people and the other part thinks they be getting exactly what they deserve. How many people are feeling the pain now because they weren't living within their means and had no savings or contingency for rising prices in their budget? Hard to feel sorry for most of them. My real sympathy lies with the fixed income older crowd, those on disability, etc.

_________________
"...man is not free unless government is limited. There's a clear cause and effect here that is as neat and predictable as a law of physics: As government expands, liberty contracts.”
Ronald Reagan

Again, you seem to miss my original point.

I'm hardly whining about gas prices. I work at home and rarely venture far, even for an extended vacation. My wife's car gets almost 40 MPG and she is reimbursed for gas and wear and tear on an average car. We only paid $15,000 for her Corolla, so she actually makes out like a bandit the more the has to use it for work. The point is that the spot market is constantly being manipulated by micro events and we need to know how to respond to it.

We needn't gut our lifestyles just because there is a little burp in the market. The best way to deal with these manipulations is to act quickly and directly. This can't be done on an individual decision basis but, rather, needs a concerted effort by everyone, and in order to be able to do that people need to be aware of the problem and to join forces to take action immediately.

A great example of this happened back in the Dust Bowl days when foreclosures by banks were rampant. The banks assumed that they could confiscate property and auction it off to the neighbors at fair market value. In some cases, the neighbors bought back the property at ridiculously low prices (a la "penny auctions") and simply returned the property to the rightful owners leaving the bank holding the bag. It didn't take but once for the banks to get hip to this tactic, but it did work in isolated cases.

Another thing that you claim is that we can simply make decisions to buy or not buy gas if we find the price to be too high. Unfortunately, this is not the answer. Almost everything that you buy is directly related to the price of the energy needed to produce, process and distribute these goods.

Case in point. My brother-in-law is a long distance truck driver who hauls heifers across the country to various dairy farms in many states. The price of diesel is close to $5/gal right now. He's not in it for humanitarian reasons, so the price he needs to get per heifer has to go way up to offset his increased costs. Now, when the farmer in Wisconsin needs to buy a New York bred heifer for his herd and the price just went up $300, guess who's gonna pay a lot more for their dairy products?

Got milk? Maybe not.

We can't live in this modern world and escape the machinations of those who we are willing to hold us hostage for their own gains. A broader and more unified battle needs to be waged. Turning down the thermostat and trading in the SUV for a Prius is only a partial solution at best.

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“We can have great disparities of wealth or we can have democracy. But we cannot have both.” - Former Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis

BK, I'm not missing your point.. But I don't think that reactionary measures by the already captive public wil hold much sway. That's what GWB tried to do a few weeks ago with the Saudis. If we wanted to send a message to OPEC and big oil, we needed to conserve 10 years back when oil prices were cheap, and world demand was low. Not now when oil prices are high, and we have other countries willing to pay the going price of oil. OPEC doesn't have to play fair, they can turn on the taps when they want, and they can turn them off when they want. Most of the oil producing countries that control the supply end of things don't have to play by US rules regarding "fairness". Big Oil benefits by any increase in demand, or an increase in the price. These increases fatten that thin slice that big oil gets for hauling the oil here from around the world and making it usable for your car. Unfortunately, the only way that we the consumers can control anything with regard to our energy expenses is to use less oil.

The market has and will always be affected by "micro events." Every market is like this, including every financial investment you make. If the average guy could acurately predict micro events we could all predict the stock market 100% of the time. But there are very few people who can accurately predict any market 100% of the time. As you pointed out in your original response to me regarding the silver markest, micro events both make fortunes and bankruptcy. It's all just a matter of which way the market wildly swings.

As to gutting your lifestyles, that's only a matter of what you are willing to do. I'm not gutting my lifestyle, but I do think twice about how I use gas, and I've made some changes in my lifestyle with this regard. Some of these changes occurred years ago much like GWA, and some have been more recently implemented. Depending on where the price goes, I may have to make more changes to accomplish my goals. But I don't ever see the American consumer controlling the supply, the price of gas or for that matter accurately predicting the price of gas. So rather than worry about what each gallon costs, I'll choose to concentrate on the aspect of this equation that I actually control.... how much I use.

PK

The world of individual choice may be fine for you, but what if the collective choice of society trends in another direction. I don't see this as any kind of solution (although every little bit helps).


For widespread change to happen on this basis … this assumes a panacea of unlimited available options, a lack of market manipulation, and the perfect transparency of information … which simply doesn't exist. The current wait for a Prius is two years. A great number of people can't afford a new car, much less one that has a base sticker price of $34,000. Maybe we don't need cars … fat chance. There's only one city in the U.S. that has anything close to a decent public transportation system, and services close enough at hand that people can work, live, raise their children, receive an education, visit parks and museums, receive decent health care, all without significant mobility. Our current circumstances have been engineered for the vehicle: zoning laws, the building of highways and bridges to the suburbs, tax policy, police services, subsidies to employers. These things have far more to do with our dependence on hydrocarbons than small pockets of consumers who make ideal choices, and have the financial resources to sustain their long-term and costly self-sacrificing decisions. We are talking about mass consumer habits, not optimal and informed decisions. Most people make the best choices they can given their present circumstances … and despite this, they are making hard and difficult choices.

The FDA just decided genetically cloned animals are healthy to eat and is set to approve the sale of milk and meat from cloned animals by the end of the year. But they aren't going to label the meat (in the U.S.). So what are consumers supposed to do?

Should we label food so that we know the cost to the environment: in transportation, refrigeration, pesticide use, labor practices, and the like.

Where do the materials come from in your house: wood, roofing, glass, paint, insulation, ducts, drywall. Why aren't more people hiring architects, buying land close to where they work, planting trees, and building eco-friendly houses? Income disparity, structural and social inequality, class and racial prejudices, all serious limit individual freedom and choices. And this isn't assigning blame, it's just a fact.

When conditions change (as they did in the Dust Bowl, the energy crisis of the 80s, the current bubble in oil prices) well, you see a shift in consumer behavior. The world that surrounds us has been built up over many years on the foundation of hydrocarbons and maize … to change this significantly anytime soon will take far more than "imaginative" consumer choices. It will take a re-engineering of the building blocks of society, a concerted effort to create viable alternatives, and also a great deal of good will, luck, and social policy to free people from the financial and institutional constraints that limit short term decision making and individual choices.

OK, let me phrase it differently.

Every time the price of gas goes up the word goes out: "Fill up now before it goes higher". This creates an acute, not a long term, reduction in available gasoline reserves and a concomitant increase in the price of gas. If instead, every time the price of gas jumped everybody in North America entered into a moratorium on purchasing it, that we refused to buy a single drop of it no matter what the immediate negative effects, the price of oil would go down to its fair market value (about $70/bbl) real quickly.

I'm not talking about predicting the spikes in price, but about how we react to them. By getting all paranoid and greedily stocking up to save a buck or two, we feed the monster and fall right into its trap.

The dramatic rise in oil prices that we have seen in the last month or so are not remotely related to reduced supply. There is plenty of oil in the world for the immediate future. The prices are the result of market hysteria and its exploitation thereof, and the appropriate reaction is to clamp down instantly and not play the game.

_________________
“We can have great disparities of wealth or we can have democracy. But we cannot have both.” - Former Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis

You are not thinking beyond what you see parked in your driveway. The implications are more widespread than consumer lifestyle choices.

Asphalt is an oil derivative used to make roads. Can we now live without highways...can the consumer impact the decision to repair roads.

Fuel is used by trucking companies in Toronto to haul our trash to Michigan (lucky Michigan). Can people simply stop creating garbage - no - not today, not tomorrow and not next year.

So the cost of everything inside and outside the consumers immediate level of visibility increases - but most importantly, whether the consumer likes it or not, the cost will be passed along to THEM - NOT the government - NOT the oil company.



Apparently, you havent read or absorbed every post, because if you did, you will see THERE IS NO OIL SHORTAGE. THE PRICE INCREASE IS AN OPPORTUNISTIC REFLEX BY THE OIL CARTELS WHO WORK TOGETHER TO ARTIFICIALLY KEEP THE PRICE HIGH. (sorry for caps...maybe blinking letters would be more effective.)



PK[/quote]

Again, you confuse the right of the consumer to choose driving (for example) a gas guzzling SUV vs an economy car. Fine - agreed - we all know that.

Trade in your SUV for a putt-putt and take a consumer loan at prime + 3 to repay a $35K new car investment. Where is the ROI when, the oil industry just doubles or triples the price of gas.

How does the consumer adjust to that - stop working. Relocate to another home or town. What lengths are we expected to go to in order to demonstrate we have complied.

Finally, WHAT is the oil industry doing to curb consumer consumption.

Jack squat. In fact, when asked what they could do for us - they replied in a recent interview they would consider lowering prices if they were granted MORE EXPLORATION.



So, there answer is - there is no oil shortage - they have artificially controlled the market to make a shit-load of money, but hell, we sure would like to dig up the boreal and kill off any remaining ecosystems to line our pockets with even MORE money as we ensure every last living soul is oil dependant.

This industry has earned my complete and total disgust.

But it is interesting to me the level of complete compliance and acceptance you and others have in what can only be described as a system that is FIXED TO KEEP YOU POOR.

I am amazed that Americans are not more outspoken. The news here in Ontario is that the housing market in the US is in record lows, people are walking away from their homes . So, to add insult to injury - we just increased their heating bill 200% in 1 year ...

Incredible.

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http://savetheogokiforest.blogspot.com/

I like this point a lot. I actually wrote to a U.S. Senator recently about expanding domestic oil production. I think there is a viable bi-partisan solution to be had. For every new oil and gas field they hope to bring on stream (by opening up new federal lands that are currently off limits), propose alternatives to reduce consumption, convert to alternative technologies, reduce greenhouse gases, improve efficiency, or the like. If you can cut back on demand by the same amount you bring on stream from new domestic sources … then you have a proposal you can sell to diverse constituencies and win bi-partisan support. The oil companies and shareholders would get their piece of the pie, and so too would environmentalists, energy nationalists, green entrepreneurs, and perhaps others (but no-one would win everything they want). It's unlikely to result in drilling in ANWR (the President of Shell Oil doesn't even support this), but perhaps in off-shore areas in the Gulf and in other areas where there are proven reserves. I have no problem with such a proposal. But new exploration or domestic production without limits (or incentives) on reducing consumption and greenhouse gas emissions … a terrible idea, which only further hurts our long-term national interests.

Energy (as in oil) is to human economic life and technological advancement as water is to biological life.

We have a lot of fresh water in Canada. Who knows, maybe today's water is tomorrows hot commodity.

On another note: get a load of this:

http://www.informationweek.com/news/man ... =208400325

I applaud your insights and you clearly have a good grasp on the big picture.

Can the planet live without the boreal even with your consessions. Can we endure another century of usage (keep in mind, not only does the existing consumer base have to convert to green, but our population base keeps increasing)

. I dont think so. But then, Im sure if government and oil has their way, they will be determined to try.

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http://savetheogokiforest.blogspot.com/

Doesn't anyone at all here think that rising oil prices are a very good thing?

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Twelve months a year out west.

I did kinda state that opinion at the beginning of the thread.

In fact, I seem to have overstated it.

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“We can have great disparities of wealth or we can have democracy. But we cannot have both.” - Former Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis

It's a bitter pill to swallow, but it's effective medicine.

The thing that bothers me is that society should have intercepted the extra money and channeled it into new energy solutions, rather than let specific interests increase their coffers in this big game of "Monopoly".

WHAT! Yeah, I live in some parallel universe where I don't have to pay the increased price of grain, milk, veggies, fruit that we are experiencing here in Michigan. What about the increase in natural gas to heat my house this too goes to the oil companies. YES, I fully understand that just about everything will increase in price.... To combat the increase in food prices...you can buy local produce when you can, buy organic food from a local farmer, don't buy processed foods. But food is a small part of almost every budget. To decrease your natural gas or electric you could have bought a more efficient furnace, better insulate your house, buy a more efficient water heater...



I never said there is currently a shortage....These are your emotional words. My only statement is that the price of oil is increasing, and I don't see a problem with the price going up... because the increase in cost will surely force more Americans to rethink how they use oil. I'm only advocating that we control the aspect of our energy bills that we actually control, rather than expecting someone else to control our usage.



I'm not confusing a right to drive anything. Drive whatever you want. But if what you choose is too expensive to fuel up then you need to look somewhere else for economy. I'm not telling you to sell your car, but I'm not about to have pity for you because of your choices either. If you choose to drive a less economical vehicle you can choose to pay the higher price for gas or you can enjoy watching it sit in your garage, No skin off my nose.

[quote='Lady Di"]Finally, WHAT is the oil industry doing to curb consumer consumption.

Jack squat. In fact, when asked what they could do for us - they replied in a recent interview they would consider lowering prices if they were granted MORE EXPLORATION.

[/quote]


Yep, that seems like a good plan. Wait around for the oil companies to lower the price of oil. Sorry, I don't think you or I are going to see lower prices any time soon. What incentive does the oil industry have to curb consumer consuption? But we as consumers have everything to gain by reducing consumption. I'm not in favor of any additional exploration until it can be done in a more eenvironmentally sound manner.



Keep me poor? Nah, hardly. Capitalism isn't making me poor. I have chosen to control my usage of oil, food, natural gas, and all the other resources by reducing my usage. Cutting my usage of stuff saves me a huge amount of money every year. I don't go without. I drive a very nice vehicle, I own a very effiicient house with all the modern conveniences that uses less than half what most houses do (just a little sweat equity), I can eat what I want high end local derived organic meat and veggies), travel where I want (multiple times a year), and I'll retire early do to making good decisions that won't either rape the planet today or my bank accounts later.

PK

Simply not true. OPEC has INCREASED production over the last 2 decades. The problem is lack of refineries, and increased DEMAND.

_________________
"...man is not free unless government is limited. There's a clear cause and effect here that is as neat and predictable as a law of physics: As government expands, liberty contracts.”
Ronald Reagan