View topic - Too Early to Talk About Algonquin Ice-Out?

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PostPosted: March 23rd, 2019, 2:09 pm 
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In 2018, the ice came off Opeongo on May 10th (though the East Arm was delayed until the 13th). Comparing this year's winter temps, snowfall etc. to last year's, do you think ice-out will be earlier or later this spring? Care to speculate on a date?

I've got an Opeongo dependent trip booked for May 8-12, with HHWT (May 8th ice out in 2018) as a back-up.


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PostPosted: March 24th, 2019, 7:43 am 
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I am in Huntsville. Much more snow, colder temps this winter. Last year we didn't start getting double digit temps up here til the last week of April. On the weather network, if you go to the monthly tab, you can select last year's monthly temps and it shows the temps and precipitation each day. So if I look at the 14 day outlook and see nice warm temps (12+ degrees) for the duration, that would give me hope. No hope yet....


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PostPosted: March 24th, 2019, 10:04 am 
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Saturday's clear skies allowed this great satellite photo on MODIS:

https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/modis ... 3.250m.jpg

Lake Simcoe's nowhere near ice-out... ice-out there might precede APP's by a week or two, depending on how warm things get.

On the plus side, the inner bay of Long Point on Lake Erie appears to be ice-free.

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PostPosted: March 25th, 2019, 1:01 pm 
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May 8th should be safe. Only 8 years since 1964 have had later ice outs and only 1 of those was this century (2019) although 2014 came close with an ice out date of May 7th.

Linear regression of the available data predicts an April 24th ice out with a whopping 6.5% probability while polynomial regression predicts an April 29th ice out with a much higher 8.9% probability. Or in English ice out is most likely to happen sometime between April 20th and May 10th.

Snowmobile trails south of Whitney just closed today but were still open through the weekend. That's about 3 weeks later than 'usual', so yeah there is lots of snow still but I don't think that means a lot. 3 weeks of spring weather with lows at or above 0 and highs into the teens from April 1st on would be enough to open things up. Last year we got a prolonged cold in April that kept everything frozen.

Personally I'm predicting April 23rd because any later and the park is likely to hold off issuing permits until after opening weekend of trout season.

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PostPosted: March 25th, 2019, 2:07 pm 
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Splake, it was announced quite a while ago that no backcountry permits would be issued prior to May 3rd in APP this year ... due as much as to the anticipated condition of access roads as to actual ice out dates.


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PostPosted: March 25th, 2019, 3:38 pm 
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open_side_up wrote:
Splake, it was announced quite a while ago that no backcountry permits would be issued prior to May 3rd in APP this year ... due as much as to the anticipated condition of access roads as to actual ice out dates.


Not quite right - what is happening is that no *reservations* are being taken for dates earlier than May 3rd. That doesn't mean that permits won't be issued earlier if ice out happens earlier. In fact back country permits are available now under the winter rules.

Here is the link to the Ontario Parks alert: https://www.ontarioparks.com/park/algonquin/backcountry/alerts

"Reservations can be made up to five months in advance for arrival dates starting with the first Friday in May (May 3 in 2019), rather than the fourth Friday in April.
If conditions permit, we will allow access to the backcountry and select campgrounds for April 26th, 2019, on a first come, first-served basis. In some locations, the backcountry may be accessed as a day-use area once trout season opens. "

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PostPosted: March 25th, 2019, 3:55 pm 
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Thanks for clarifying Splake. I will be surprised if the much of the park is open for trouting on the last Sat. of April, but "que sera, sera."


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PostPosted: March 26th, 2019, 6:16 am 
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I guessed May 15th in the Algonquin park ice out contest! It's a balmy -11 this morning in Huntsville and lows don't get above zero til day 14 of the 14 day outlook so..... It's been a long winter, daytime highs in the teens feel like a dream!!! Hopefully they are just around the corner.


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PostPosted: March 27th, 2019, 8:50 pm 
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There's a lot of snow on the ground throughout Haliburton, north Hastings, Renfrew and Muskoka. The ice is also ridiculously thick and not going to budge so quickly given that it's been substantially below freezing every night for the past 5 days or so. It got up to 6 degrees in Barry's Bay today, so things are definitely on the upswing.

I'd say we're probably going to hit the average ice out if things don't change dramatically one way or the other.

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PostPosted: April 8th, 2019, 2:54 pm 
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Ice out is moving north, both Kelso and Mountsburg are now ice free!
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PostPosted: April 8th, 2019, 3:12 pm 
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We were at the cottage for the weekend. That's 20 minutes south of Bancroft, about an hour south of Whitney. We had 25" of ice when we drilled the water hole Friday night. Double checked that measurement Saturday morning. That's about 7" more than we had April 3rd last year. I fully expect to be walking out to the island again when we are back up for Easter in 2 weeks.

I like to be an optimist when it comes to ice out, and so far the April forecast looks better than it did last year but I have officially given up on an April ice out for Algonquin.

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PostPosted: April 8th, 2019, 4:25 pm 
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Ice breaker tried and failed third time in Midland harbor.
https://barrie.ctvnews.ca/midland-harbo ... -1.4371093


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PostPosted: April 8th, 2019, 5:32 pm 
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Splake wrote:
We were at the cottage for the weekend. That's 20 minutes south of Bancroft, about an hour south of Whitney. We had 25" of ice when we drilled the water hole Friday night. Double checked that measurement Saturday morning. That's about 7" more than we had April 3rd last year. I fully expect to be walking out to the island again when we are back up for Easter in 2 weeks.

I like to be an optimist when it comes to ice out, and so far the April forecast looks better than it did last year but I have officially given up on an April ice out for Algonquin.


I agree and I have to admit that I was being optimistic in my original assessment of hitting the average ice out. It'll be into May before we see ice out at this rate unless something drastic happens. There is a pretty major weather system moving our way from the southwest which is also going to make things interesting.

Anyway, I was in Bancroft today and you can't see very much green on the ground right now. By my guess, Bancroft has about 6" of snowpack that's melting fast. While I was in Bancroft, I was talking to a guy who lives in Whitney / Madawaska area and he was telling me that the park staff were telling him that they measured snow drifts over 1m last week. That means that the drifts haven't really budged since March!

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PostPosted: April 8th, 2019, 7:04 pm 
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I'm hoping for a one nighter at QEII or Kawartha Highlands in the first week in May.


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PostPosted: April 14th, 2019, 6:38 am 
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Ignoring the 10-20 cm of snow we are getting today :( :o the forecast is finally looking good! Above zero lows, yay! The first week of May for ice out looks a little more promising.


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